Cómo afectan El Niño y La Niña al clima global

The powerful, oscillating currents of the Pacific Ocean truly drive the world’s most dramatic weather events, underscoring precisely how El Niño and La Niña Affect Global Weather.

These two opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are not mere regional temperature shifts; they represent a complete atmospheric and oceanic reorganization that ripples across continents.

As a veteran oceanography columnist, I’ve observed countless cycles, each one offering a complex lesson in global climate teleconnections.

How can two ocean patterns dictate the fate of farmers in Brazil or the severity of a hurricane season in the Atlantic?

Understanding the ENSO Seesaw

The term ENSO describes a natural, recurring climate fluctuation originating in the tropical Pacific.

This climate phenomenon is a classic example of ocean-atmosphere coupling. It swings irregularly, roughly every two to seven years, creating far-reaching consequences.

The Warm Phase: El Niño

El Niño and La Niña Affect Global Weather by shifting the center of oceanic heat.

El Niño, the warm phase, sees sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise significantly above average.

These warmer waters fundamentally alter the typical atmospheric circulation.

The normal Walker Circulation, which features strong easterly trade winds, weakens dramatically during El Niño.

This weakening shifts convection and heavy rainfall eastward from the western Pacific.

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The eastern Pacific near the Americas becomes unusually warm and wet, causing floods in Peru and Ecuador.

The Cool Phase: La Niña

La Niña, the cool phase, is the energetic opposite, amplifying the Pacific’s normal conditions. SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific fall substantially below the historical average.

The trade winds intensify, pushing warm surface water even further toward Asia.

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This intense upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water cools a massive swath of the Pacific.

La Niña concentrates rainfall and storm activity over Indonesia, Australia, and parts of Southeast Asia, often leading to severe flooding there.

Simultaneously, it induces drier conditions across the eastern Pacific and the Americas.

The Domino Effect on Global Climate

The changes in Pacific SSTs and the overlying atmosphere exert a “teleconnection” effect.

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These atmospheric waves propagate outward, altering the global jet streams—fast-flowing air currents that steer weather systems.

The jet stream’s position and intensity essentially determine our regional weather.

During a typical El Niño, the Pacific jet stream extends eastward and southward across North America. This change often brings wetter, cooler conditions to the Southern United States.

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Conversely, the northern tier of the U.S. and Canada typically experiences a milder, drier winter.

La Niña generally pushes the Pacific jet stream northward, leading to colder, snowier winters in the northern U.S. and drier, warmer conditions across the South.

These shifting tracks determine everything from snowpack for spring runoff to the intensity of droughts.

Extreme Weather Amplification

Both ENSO phases are known to amplify the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events worldwide.

The most recent and relevant data confirms this pattern. For instance, the transition from El Niño to La Niña has been closely linked to shifts in tropical storm activity.

1: Atlantic Hurricanes. La Niña years frequently correlate with an above-average Atlantic hurricane season.

The cooler Pacific waters lessen wind shear over the Atlantic basin, creating a more favorable environment for tropical cyclone development. Conversely, El Niño years tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.

2: Australian Wildfires. El Niño often brings hotter, drier conditions to Indonesia and Australia, significantly increasing the risk and severity of bushfires.

La Niña, however, tends to deliver torrential rainfall, leading to major flood events across eastern Australia.

Climate Change as a Persistent Background Note

It is crucial to consider the ENSO cycle within the context of accelerated global warming.

The “cool” years of recent La Niña events are now often warmer globally than the “warm” years of El Niño decades ago.

This El Niño and La Niña Affect Global Weather interaction means that natural cycles are being superimposed on a consistently rising baseline temperature.

The 2023-2024 El Niño was a significant contributor to global heat records.

Climate scientists suggest that while climate change may not directly alter the frequency of ENSO, it could intensify the impacts of each event.

Warmer oceans contain more energy, potentially fueling more extreme ENSO-related weather.

Economic and Agricultural Repercussions

The influence of ENSO extends far beyond atmospheric physics; it directly impacts global agriculture and economies.

El El Niño and La Niña Affect Global Weather patterns dictate planting seasons and crop yields, with consequences for global food markets.

A notable statistic reveals the staggering financial scale of this phenomenon.

According to a 2017 study published in the journal Avances científicos, the 1997–1998 El Niño alone cost the global economy an estimated $5.7 trillion over the following five years.

This enormous cost stemmed from widespread crop failures, infrastructure damage from flooding, and health crises.

The effect is like a planet-sized thermostat stuck on a volatile setting, cycling between extreme heat and relative coolness, but always trending hotter.

This instability is the essence of why understanding how El Niño and La Niña Affect Global Weather is vital.

The Oceanographer’s Perspective

From an oceanographer’s vantage point, the ENSO cycle is a powerful, elegant, yet disruptive expression of the planet’s energy balance.

It forces us to acknowledge the profound connectivity of the ocean and the atmosphere. Predicting the exact magnitude and duration of the next phase remains a formidable scientific challenge.

Current models, as of late 2025, suggest a likely transition from the recent neutral phase into a La Niña, with a high chance of persistence into early 2026.

This prediction immediately raises concerns for the Atlantic hurricane season and drought potential in South America.

We have sophisticated satellite data and advanced modeling, yet the complexity of Earth’s system means surprises are inevitable.

Can we ever truly outpace the sheer scale of the Pacific’s influence? The continued effort to monitor and predict ENSO is a global imperative, one that saves lives and secures livelihoods.

Conclusion: Anticipating the Next Swing

The recurring, yet unpredictable, cycle is a stark reminder of nature’s power.

Understanding precisely how El Niño and La Niña Affect Global Weather is the first step toward effective mitigation and preparation for the inevitable next swing of this climate pendulum.

Our ability to adapt to these natural rhythms, intensified by a warming world, will define the resilience of our global society in the years ahead.

Preguntas frecuentes

What is the difference between El Niño and ENSO?

ENSO stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation, representing the entire climate pattern. El Niño is the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, while La Niña is the cool phase. ENSO also includes a “neutral” phase.

How long do El Niño and La Niña events typically last?

Both El Niño and La Niña events generally last for nine to twelve months, but some strong events can persist for multiple years, particularly some La Niña occurrences.

They typically peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Is ENSO related to climate change?

While ENSO is a natural phenomenon, climate change provides a backdrop of higher average global temperatures.

This warming baseline can intensify the impacts of both phases, potentially leading to more severe extreme weather events during both El Niño and La Niña.

Enrique 3 de octubre de 2025